到 2026 年 4 月 9 日為止，我們對美股與港股的判斷 Our Judgment on U.S. and Hong Kong Stocks as of 9 April 2026
若要把 2026 年 4 月 9 日的市況講得準確，我會這樣說：
美股處於一個可以做事、但仍要守規矩的階段；港股則處於一個背景改善、但真正高質素 setup 仍然偏少的階段。
這兩個市場都不差，但它們的可操作性並不一樣。
If I had to describe the market as of 9 April 2026 with precision, I would put it this way:
the U.S. market was in a phase where one could act, but only with discipline; Hong Kong was in a phase where the backdrop was improving, yet truly high-quality setups remained relatively scarce.
Neither market was poor, but their usability was not the same.
美股的好處，在於領先股相對容易辨認。市場連升七日，情緒改善，科技與半導體設備一批股票開始走出較有次序的結構；但同一時間，油價、通脹與地緣政治的不確定性，也提醒大家這不是一個可以對風險視而不見的環境。
The strength of the U.S. market lay in the relative clarity of leadership. The market had advanced for seven straight sessions, sentiment had improved, and a group of technology and semiconductor-equipment names had begun to form more orderly structures. At the same time, uncertainty around oil, inflation, and geopolitics reminded us that this was not an environment in which risk could be ignored.
在這種背景下，像 Fabrinet (FN.US)、Kulicke & Soffa (KLIC.US)、Lattice Semiconductor (LSCC.US) 這類名字，之所以值得留意，不單因為它們屬於熱門主題，而是因為主題、圖表、相對強度與基本面能夠互相配合。這類股票，即使未必每一刻都便宜，但至少較有章法。
Against that background, names such as Fabrinet (FN.US), Kulicke & Soffa (KLIC.US), and Lattice Semiconductor (LSCC.US) were worth attention not merely because they belonged to fashionable themes, but because theme, chart structure, relative strength, and business support were aligned. Even when such stocks are not cheap at every moment, they are at least orderly.
港股的好處，則不在於有很多漂亮圖表，而在於市場生態比不少人想像中穩步改善。
4 月 8 日復市，恒指升 3.09%，恒生科技指數升 5.22%；到 4 月 9 日，恒指回落 0.54%，恒生科技指數跌 2.06%，這說明短線仍然很受消息面影響。但另一邊，市場背景正在逐步回暖，這一點不應被忽略。
The strength of Hong Kong, by contrast, did not lie in an abundance of beautiful charts at that moment, but in a market ecosystem that was improving more steadily than many appreciated.
When the market reopened on 8 April, the Hang Seng rose 3.09% and the Hang Seng Tech Index gained 5.22%. By 9 April, the Hang Seng had slipped 0.54% and the Tech Index had fallen 2.06%, showing how sensitive the short-term tape still was to headlines. Yet on the other side of the ledger, the backdrop was gradually warming, and that should not have been ignored.
因此，我們對港股的挑選，自然比對美股更保守。
像 吉利汽車 (0175.HK)、中國銀行 (3988.HK)、美的集團 (0300.HK) 這些名字，未必全部屬於漂亮突破股，但它們至少屬於可以慢慢看、慢慢分辨的標的。換句話說，港股不是沒有機會，而是需要更高的耐性和更嚴格的標準。
That is why our Hong Kong selection had to be more conservative than our U.S. selection.
Names such as 吉利汽車 (0175.HK), 中國銀行 (3988.HK), and 美的集團 (0300.HK) were not all beautiful breakout stocks, but they were at least names worth studying carefully. Put differently, Hong Kong did not lack opportunity at that stage, but it required more patience and a stricter standard.
到最後，4 月 9 日給我們的提醒，其實很老實：
有些市況，最重要不是你有沒有意見，而是你有沒有分寸。
美股較有把握感；港股則較需要等待更清楚的圖表與時機。兩者都可以研究，但出手的標準，不應一樣。
In the end, the lesson of 9 April was an honest one:
in some market phases, what matters most is not whether one has a view, but whether one has measure.
The U.S. offered more confidence at that point. Hong Kong required more waiting for clarity in both chart and timing. Both were worth studying, but the standard for action should not have been the same.
